地点：气候变化与能源经济研究中心会议室

Paper1：贾梦雨 A general equilibrium approach to carbon permit banking

摘要：We study the general equilibrium effects of carbon permit banking during the transition to a climate-neutral economy by 2050. To this end, we develop an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in which the business sector is regulated by a generic emission trading system (ETS). Firms are authorized to transfer unused permits from one period to the next (banking), but the reverse direction (borrowing) is prohibited. Allowing for positive banking gives firms the opportunity to smooth their permit demand along the business cycle. Applications inspired by recent European Union-ETS regulations underscore the critical role of permit banking in shaping policy outcomes. For example, the 2023 cap reform would result in a more significant reduction in both permit banking and carbon emissions, as well as a 40% to 50% increase in the carbon price compared to pre-reform projections, without substantial additional GDP loss by 2060. Importantly, forgetting about permit banking when assessing cap policies would lead to both a significant underestimation of the total macroeconomic effects and an inaccurate representation of the carbon emission trajectory.

Paper2：陈发毅 Emerging green steel markets surrounding the EU emissions trading system and carbon border adjustment mechanism

摘要：The global steel industry accounts for 8–10 % of global CO2 emissions and requires deep decarbonisation for achieving the targets set in the Paris Agreement. However, no low-emission primary steel production technology has yet been commercially feasible or deployed. Through analysing revisions and additions of European Union climate policy, we show that green hydrogenbased steelmaking in competitive locations achieves cost-competitiveness on the European market starting 2026. If the deployment of competitive lowemission steelmaking is insufficient, we show that the European steel industry loses competitiveness vis-à-vis countries with access to low-cost renewable energy. Therefore, we assess the options for the European steel industry to relocate the energy-intensive ironmaking step and trade Hot Briquetted Iron for rapid deep decarbonisation of the European steel industry. Lastly, we discuss complementing policy options to enhance the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s strategic value through European Union-lead global climate cooperation and the possibility of sparking an international decarbonisation race.